On 24 July, French leader Emmanuel Macron took his presidential plane, an A330-200, to the Gallic overseas territory of New Caledonia in the South Pacific, which has held three failed referendums on independence. It’s Macron’s second visit after five years, at least two Rafale fighter jets took off to escort the presidential plane. Macron then posted immediately two consecutive videos of French Air Force fighter jets escorting him on social media with the caption, “The Rafale fighter jets coming to escort us can prove that France is still a strong force in the Indo-Pacific region.” In the context of the global increasingly towards a bipolar confrontation between China and the United States, Paris, however, seems to have come out of the third way: whether it is the issue of Ukraine or Taiwan, Paris seems to hold a different view from its traditional European and American allies, and in the relationship between the two major powers of China and the United States, Macron has also found a relatively good balance. Even with several strikes and riots at domestic level over retirement reform, France’s recent diplomatic performance has been more eye-catching. Even in the Asia-Pacific and Indo-Pacific regions, where China and the US are struggling the most, France still has a considerable presence and influence. And where does this influence come from? What will the future be? In the Indo-Pacific region, where China and the United States are fiercely competing, how should France avoid getting involved in the dispute and maintain its influence? This is a question that France should ponder and cannot avoid.
Past & Present
For France, its Indo-Pacific map is different from that of the United States and China, which, thanks to its overseas departments in eastern Africa, reaches as far west as the east coast of Africa, as far east as the west coast of Central America, as far north as Japan, and as far south as New Zealand and Australia. In fact, the history of France in the Indo-Pacific region can be traced back to its colonial empire. As early as the seventeenth century, France occupied the island of Réunion in East Africa, and in the nineteenth century, the French flag was planted on a large number of islands in the South Pacific. In Asia, in the second half of the nineteenth century, France established the French Indochina Peninsula, which touched Guangzhou Bay in Zhanjiang, China, even the port of Keelung in Taiwan had become a battleground between the French army and the Qing soldiers. In the aftermath of the Second World War, France lost a large part of its colonial territory due to a wave of national independence and decolonization, but the overseas departments or territories it left behind in the Indo-Pacific region still allow it to have a significant influence in the region. This large overseas territory gives France the second largest exclusive economic zone in the world after the United States of America, with an area of up to 9 million square kilometers in the Indo-Pacific region. In terms of population, approximately 2.7 % of the French population lives in the French Indo-Pacific territories, i.e., between 1.7 and 1.8 million people, while approximately 600,000 people live in the archipelagos of the South Pacific. In addition to its large population and territory, France’s military combat power in the region is a key presence that cannot be ignored. In addition to the military bases in Djibouti and the United Arab Emirates, France has five sub-regional commands in the Indo-Pacific region, three of which, FAZSOI, FANA and FAPF, are called sovereignty commands by the French military, i.e., their area of responsibility is a French sovereignty territory, while the remaining two, ALPACI and ALINDIEN, are in charge of combatant commands for the rest of the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean, respectively. The French Pacific Fleet, which is part of ALPACI and is based in the port of Papeete in French Polynesia in the South Pacific. About 7,000 French soldiers are permanently deployed in the Indo-Pacific region, with more than 700 on combat readiness, while 1,600 French troops are permanently stationed in New Caledonia, where the French head of state has just visited, as well as a number of Rafale fighters deployed, which are precisely the key to maintaining France’s influence in the South Pacific region, and indeed in the Indo-Pacific as a whole.
Figure 1. French territories in the Indo-Pacific region. Franceinfo (2022)
France has also demonstrated its charisma and attractiveness in the region in terms of diplomacy, science and technology, and cultural soft power. France maintains excellent diplomatic relations with most of the countries in the region, with 25 embassies, 14 consulates and two representative offices in the Indo-Pacific region. In 2022, France became an observer state in ASEAN’s ADMM+, and in the same year, President Macron became the first European head of state to be invited to the APEC summit. And back in 2016, two of France’s overseas territories, French Polynesia, and New Caledonia, participated in the Pacific Forum, a regional political cooperation organization. In its diplomatic relations with the major powers in the region, as well as in its scientific and technological and various industrial co-operation, France has always been a noteworthy performer. In addition to the export of wine, luxury goods and agricultural products, France has developed several heavy industries and scientific and technological projects in cooperation with the countries of the region. In the field of aviation, countries in the Asia-Pacific region are important customers of Airbus. According to Airbus’s forecast, the Asia-Pacific region will account for 40 % of Airbus’s share of the global market in the next 20 years, and China will account for 20 % of it. In addition to China, there are also Viet Nam, Malaysia, and India that will be emerging markets in the field of civil aviation, and all these countries will be the important targets of Airbus. In terms of space, as one of the few space technology powers on the planet, France is also actively cooperating with countries in its domain, such as the MMX Mars satellite exploration mission with Japan, the SVOM astrophysics satellite launched in cooperation with China, and the CFOsat satellite. In terms of arms sales, the United Arab Emirates, India, and Singapore are loyal customers of French arms dealers. In the recent Indian aircraft carrier bidding, the Rafale fighter beat the U.S. F-18 and successfully boarded the new Indian aircraft carrier, making India surpass the United Arab Emirates to become the world’s top importer of Rafale fighters. As the world’s largest nuclear power country, France’s nuclear plant technology is widely favored by various countries. China and France have been cooperating in the field of nuclear energy for more than 40 years, and during President Macron’s visit to China in April, China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) and Electricité de France (EDF) signed a memorandum of understanding to work together on low-carbon development. India, which has just attended France’s National Day as the guest of honor, is looking to partner with France as early as 2021 to build the world’s largest nuclear power plant by constructing six EPRs on Indian soil. Other countries, such as Vietnam, are also interested in cooperating with France to build nuclear power plants. In terms of cultural soft power, in addition to the romantic Paris Tower, there are various cultural exchanges and cooperation with the countries in the region, with the Alliance Française having more than 78 institutes in 30 countries in Asia and Oceania, in which more than 110,000 students study French language and French culture. At the same time, students from Asia and Oceania account for more than 20 % of the French higher education system’s students abroad, second only to Africa.
Figure 2. Published by Sheelah Delestre. Foreign students in higher education by origin in France 2021-2022 (27/02/2023)
In summary, France has a long history and tradition in this region, as well as strong hard and soft power, making France not only a European country from the geopolitical perspective, but also a powerful force active in the Indo-Pacific region. However, in the context of the U.S.-China game, France’s situation in the region seems to be facing challenges.
France’s Vision of Balance and Independence between China and the United States
Under the background of the China-US confrontation, choosing sides seems to be becoming a difficult problem faced by most of the countries in the world, and countries located in the Indo-Pacific are even more caught in a dilemma: China or the United States? The Cold War seems to be approaching us once again. But at the same time, the Fifth French Republic, with its independent foreign policy, has made a third choice: to play a difficult but delicate balancing act between China and the United States. In his speech at the APEC 2022 summit, President Macron publicly called for countries not to choose sides between China and the United States, calling “choosing sides” a “huge mistake”. Macron’s balancing strategy has proved to be feasible.
French investment in China, its largest trading partner outside the European Union, rose by more than 600 % year-on-year in the first quarter, following China’s deregulation of the epidemic at the beginning of the year. The subsequent visit to China in early April by the French President, Mr. Macron, was also a highlight and was followed by major media outlets. Even if for the United States, France is an ally with whom it has a long history of good relations, in the same way, for China, the French people, who have inherited the spirit of Gaullism, are not 100% obedient to the American boss like the Anglo-Saxons of the Five Eyes Coalition, but rather, they have independent and autonomous ideas on major international issues (the first to establish diplomatic relations with the PRC in 1964 is a good example of this), and are the ones who could be drawn and run among its allies (and France is well versed in this). Therefore, when President Macron visited China, Beijing paid special attention to him, as evidenced by the specifications of his reception and programme, which contrasted sharply with the reception given to US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and US Treasury Secretary Ms. Yellen, who visited China later, and which demonstrated the difference in Beijing’s perception of Paris and Washington at this stage.
Figure 3. By Jamil Anderlini and Clea Caulcutt. POLITICO (09/04/2023)
On the third day of his trip, Macron flew into the southern gateway city of Guangzhou, which witnessed the earliest exchanges between China and France, dating back to the time of Louis XIV, the Sun King, but this was the first time that the city had welcomed France’s supreme head of state. On board the presidential plane for the trip, the president gave an interview to 《L’Echo》, a French press, expressing his views on Taiwan, stressing that Europeans should not take sides on Taiwan because of the position of the United States and China’s reaction, and that it’s not the interest of Europe to trigger the issue. When the statement was reported, it caused an uproar and drew criticism from the media on both sides of the Atlantic. Later in the day, however, the French frigate crossed the Taiwan Strait from south to north and sailed close to the western side of the Taiwan Strait’s center line, a move that was seen as a sign of the president’s adherence to his remarks and a warming of relations with China. It is worth noting that despite Beijing’s claim of sovereignty over the area, the PLA did not send any warships to follow or monitor the French frigate on this voyage through the Taiwan Straits, in sharp contrast to the PLA Navy’s forceful expulsions of Canadian and US warships. This unusual approach by the French Navy and the PLA seems to be a warning to Taiwan and the United States that France has its own position on such sensitive issues involving China and the U.S., rather than being subordinate to the United States. And the White House’s response was surprising, with Kirby saying that the relationship between the U.S. and France is fantastic. At the same time, the French ambassador to the United States also came out to clarify that Macron’s comments had been over-interpreted and that he was worried about damage to Franco-American relations. Obviously, both sides want to deal with this matter in a low-key manner, not long ago, they had a rift due to the AUKUS submarine issue, and neither side wants the crack to deepen further. The United States, in particular, does not want France to get closer to China as a result of this situation.
In Europe, Macron is also facing a lot of pressure, his remarks on Taiwan have been widely criticized, some MPs said Macron is “increasingly self-isolated” in Europe, Macron had to reaffirm France’s support for the status quo in Taiwan during his visit to The Hague in the Netherlands. On the issue of NATO’s entry into East Asia to set up liaison offices, Macron has also publicly opposed, worried that this move will cause China’s strong resentment, but the French Navy soon held military exercises with the U.S., Canadian and Japanese navies in the Pacific Ocean. It can be assumed that France’s balancing act can find a balance point between China and the United States, temporarily do not need to completely pick a side, but it can also be understood that, at this stage of its U.S. and European Union friends of the pressure, the real sense of independence and autonomy is difficult to achieve, may be just a vision of France.
In France’s latest military planning law enacted in July, the military budget given to the French army in 2024-2030 is planned to be 413 billion euros, an increase of 118 billion euros over the previous cycle, of which 13 billion is used for France’s overseas territories, updating all kinds of ships, weapons and improving supply capacity, so as to maintain France’s military influence in the Indo-Pacific region and seek a balance of power in the region, highlighting the pursuit of the status quo of stability in the Indo-Pacific region by France. This military planning law listed China’s PLA as one of the threats to French forces in the Indo-Pacific region, and an article published by its Ministry of Defense in 2021 also noted that China’s reclamation of the South China Sea and the construction of military installations altered the status quo in the region and heated the situation and expressed concern about China’s increasing nuclear deterrence capabilities. Surprisingly, however, another report by the French Ministry of Defense in the same year also criticized the United States, arguing that some of its decisions challenged multilateral institutions and international agreements and undermined the existing international order. This boldness to criticize two of the most powerful countries in the world today at the same time is rare for other countries, and France, as a permanent member of the Security Council and influenced by the de Gaullism, surely wants to regain its strategic autonomy rather than become subordinate to any one country, whether in the Pacific or in Europe, whether in the issue of Ukraine or Taiwan – after all, its military presence in the Indo-Pacific makes France a nuclear power with global nuclear delivery capabilities, and the ability to intervene in multiregional affairs at any time.
Simon WU, research fellow of University of La Rochelle，La Rochelle，France.