In Eastern Europe, Russia’s special military operation against Ukraine has been underway for more than 13 months. This protracted Russian-Ukrainian war has attracted the attention of the whole world, but it also makes people think about the other side of the world: Will the war also break out in the Taiwan Strait in East Asia? As we all know, the Taiwan Strait separates Mainland China and Taiwan from southwest to northeast. Since 1949, the two sides of the strait have been divided and ruled by different regimes, and they have been in a state of military confrontation until 1979. Before the outbreak of Covid-19, the two sides of the strait had had normal exchanges for 30 years. Although the two sides have been able to communicate normally over the past three decades, whenever the Democratic Progressive Party government, which supports Taiwan’s independence, takes power, the relationship between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait will drop to a freezing point and even war may break out, such as the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis. Since 2016, Taiwan has been ruled by Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party. Relations between Beijing and Taipei have declined sharply in recent years due to Tsai’s apparent pro-US and anti-China stance and refusal to recognize the 1992 Consensus. Military aircraft confrontations between the two sides have frequently occurred. Last year, the visit by Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, and her delegation to Taiwan nearly triggered a military conflict between Taiwan and mainland China, and even between the United States and China. In fact, back in 2021, 《The Economist》 put Taiwan on its cover as “The most dangerous place on earth”. But what exactly is causing the tension in the Taiwan Strait? What is the status of cross-strait relations? Will war break out between the two sides? What is the future direction of relations between Mainland China and Taiwan? These have become issues of great concern to the international community.
The origin of the issue
Before we explore the answers of the questions above, we need to consider a very important and sensitive thing: interpret the Taiwan issue from different dimensions. Mainland China, Taiwan, the United States and even other countries or regions have different subjective positions and views, but from the perspective of history and facts, it is often the most objective and fair.
Historical dimension
The recorded history of Taiwan can be traced back to 230 AD. At that time, Taiwan was called “Yi Zhou” by a Chinese ancient book，“Which means barbarian island.” According to historical records, in 610 (Sui Dynasty), the Han people in Mainland China began to migrate to the Penghu area. By the Song and Yuan Dynasties (960-1368 AD), there were a considerable number of Han people in the Penghu area. After the Han people developed Penghu, they began to develop to Taiwan, bringing with them the advanced production technology at that time. From the 12 century During the Song Dynasty, the Yuan Dynasty and the Ming Dynasty, the Chinese mainland government set up administrative agencies and sent troops to station in Penghu. After entering the 17th century, the scale of the Han people’s development in Taiwan became larger and larger. During the years of war and famine, the Ming Dynasty government used to immigrate Han Chinese to Taiwan in an organized manner. From 1624 to 1662, Taiwan was colonized by the Netherlands and Spain. In 1662, the Ming Dynasty general Zheng Chenggong led the army to defeat the Dutch army and successfully recaptured Taiwan. And established the first Han regime in Taiwan’s history. The Zheng regime transplanted Mainland China’s political, cultural, and educational system to Taiwan, attached importance to land development and water conservancy construction, developed foreign trade, and promoted the development of Taiwan’s economy. By the end of the Zheng regime, Taiwan’s Han population had reached 120,000. In 1683, the Qing government sent General Shi Lang to attack Taiwan, the Zheng regime surrendered, and Taiwan was incorporated into the territory of the Qing Dynasty and was subordinate to Fujian Province. In 1894, the Qing government failed in the Sino-Japanese War and ceded Taiwan and the Penghu Islands to Japan. The Republic of China was established in 1911. With the surrender of Japan in 1945, the Second World War officially came to an end. According to the 《Cairo Declaration》and the《Potsdam Proclamation》，Japan returned Taiwan and Penghu Islands to the Republic of China. To this day, Taiwan has been governed by the government of the Republic of China. Undeniably, much of Taiwan’s history is closely linked to mainland China.
Social dimension
Due to massive immigration during the Ming and Qing dynasties, by 1894 Taiwan’s population was nearly 2.5 million. Taiwan’s population was officially counted around 23,196,178 at the end of May 2022. The Han people of Taiwan account for 97% of the total population, which is mainly divided into Hokkien People (about 73%), Hakka people (about 12%), and People from other provinces in China (about 13%). Taiwan aborigines account for 2.33% of Taiwan’s population. In terms of language, the official language of Taiwan is Mandarin, same as mainland China. As most of Taiwan’s population is of Hokkien and Hakka origin, the dialects are mainly Hokkien and Hakka, and some Taiwanese aborigines languages. It can be seen that, both in terms of population and language, mainland China is the origin of Taiwan.
Law dimension
After Japan announced its unconditional surrender in 1945, according to the《Cairo Declaration》 and the 《Potsdam Proclamation》：“All the territories Japan has stolen from the Chinese, such as Manchuria, Formosa, and the Pescadores, shall be restored to the Republic of China.” There is no doubt that these two documents confirm China’s sovereignty over Taiwan and the Penghu Islands after World War II from the perspective of international law. However，after the Chinese Civil War in 1949, KMT fled to Taiwan with the government of the Republic of China, and the Communist Party established the People’s Republic of China in mainland China. Since then，the question of which government can represent the whole of China and the ownership of Taiwan has caused fierce across the Taiwan Strait. On the issue of who can represent the whole of China, in 1971, United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758 was passed, restoring the legitimate rights of the People’s Republic of China in the United Nations Organization, recognizing the representative of the Government of the People’s Republic of China as the only legitimate representative of China in the United Nations Organization, and expelled the representative of the Republic of China from Taiwan. Countries such as the United States and France have also recognized the government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal government representing the whole of China in their joint communiqués with the People’s Republic of China. As for Taiwan’s ownership, whether it is the constitution of the PRC or the constitution of the ROC, both the mainland and Taiwan belong to one China. So, what is certain is that, from a legal point of view, there is only one China in the world, and Taiwan is a part of China. The only point of contention is who can represent the whole of China. In fact, this point of contention no longer exists in the international community, and only exists in the laws of mainland China and Taiwan.
INTERNATIONAL BACKGROUND
Due to the objective existence of the one-China policy in the international community, no country in the world can establish diplomatic relations with the PRC and the ROC at the same time. The PRC has established diplomatic relations with 182 countries, while the ROC has formal diplomatic relations with 13 sovereign states around the world. Since assuming office in 2016, Tsai Ing-wen, the leader of ROC, has lost nine diplomatic allies. It can be said that as PRC’s international influence continues to rise, the number of diplomatic allies of the ROC will only decrease. For example, recently, PRC and Honduras established formal diplomatic relations, leaving ROC with only 13 remaining diplomatic allies in the world. Although few countries have established diplomatic relations with ROC, it maintains exchanges with many non-diplomatic countries and sets up representative offices (not embassies) in each other’s land, such as AIT and Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States. In most international organizations, we use “Taiwan, China” or “Taiwan, Province of China” to refer to the ROC, and “Chinese Taipei” is the title used by the ROC in international sports events.
AMERICA’S ROLE IN CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS
There is no doubt that the PRC has achieved a near-perfect victory in gaining legal representation of China. But there are still many obstacles to overcome before China’s reunification. The United States is one of the obstacles. The United States is like a wall, standing in the Taiwan Strait, separating mainland China and Taiwan. After the Korean War broke out, the United States dispatched an aircraft carrier battle group into the Taiwan Strait to prevent the Chinese mainland army from attacking Taiwan, and the American troops were stationed in Taiwan, which lasted until 1979. In 1979, after the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, Mainland and Taiwan reached a ceasefire. Mainland China proposed to Taiwan “Peaceful reunification, one country, two systems” likes Hong Kong and Macau today. The Republic of China (Taiwan) proposes “The Three People’s Principles, unify China”. The two sides have started economic and trade exchanges, and the people from both sides can communicate with each other. In 1992, the officially authorized organizations of the two sides held talks in Hong Kong, and reached a consensus in the subsequent exchanges, The 1992 Consensus: both sides adhere to the one-China principle. Everything seemed to be going very well, but in 1995, President Lee Teng-hui of the Republic of China visited the United States, which led to a sharp decline in cross-strait relations. The PLA held military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, and the United States once again sent an aircraft carrier battle group into the Taiwan Strait to prevent military operations of mainland China. The U.S. military has twice prevented China’s reunification, and until now, the U.S. still plays a very important role in cross-strait relations. For a long time, when it comes to the Taiwan issue, the attitude of the United States is vague and ambiguous. For example：in 1978，in《Joint Communiqué on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations》“The United States of America recognizes the Government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal Government of China. The Government of the United States of America acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China.”. The UAS used the word “acknowledge” instead of “admit” or “recognize”. The word“acknowledge” has brought a lot of trouble to the Chinese government in its negotiations with the US government on the Taiwan issue in the future. In early May of this year, the fact sheet of US-Taiwan relations on the website of the US State Department, deleted the statements like “We do not support Taiwan independence” and “The Government of the United States of America acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China.” compared with the previous version. But at the end of May, the statement “We do not support Taiwan independence” was rewritten on the Fact sheet, but the other one was not. Within a month, the United States made its strategic ambiguity about the Taiwan issue on full display. Today, although the United States promised to gradually reduce arms sales to Taiwan in the 《U.S-PRC Joint Communique》in 1982, according to the 《Taiwan Relations Act》, the United States is still conducting arms sales to Taiwan to enhance Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities. Described by General MacArthur as an unsinkable aircraft carrier, Taiwan was used as an important part of the Cold War defense against communist forces. To this day, Taiwan is still used by the United States as an important link in the first island chain to contain the rise of mainland China.
Figure 1. uploaded by Jan Odrobiński-Stąporek .Overview map of First and Second Island Chain Source: Catama (2015)
But for Americans, Taiwan is only a chess piece, preventing China’s unification is just a means for the US government to stop the rise of China, which is the ultimate goal of Washington. Because the United States has gradually felt the threat to him from this great economic and military power. But China’s rise seems unstoppable.
THE RISE OF MAINLAND CHINA
China has been one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council since 1971, when it regained its legitimate seat in the UN. After the Reform and opening-up in 1978, China, with a large population and a huge market, has developed rapidly in the economic field. During the eleven years from 2000 to 2011, China’s GDP growth rate remained above 8%. In 2021, China’s GDP reach US$17.7 trillion, accounting for 74% of US GDP and 17.8% of global GDP.
Figure 2. World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files. GDP (current US$)-China, United States, World (1977-2020)
China’s technological and military prowess has grown rapidly on the back of its booming economy. A variety of high-end weapons are used by the world’s largest regular army, the PLA. According to the《GLOBAL FIREPOWER 2022》，China ranks second around the world. With the recent launch of the Aircraft Carrier “Fujian Hao”, China now has three aircraft carriers. The U.S. navy and air force no longer have an easy time in the Asia-pacific region. The Taiwan Strait is no longer a place where the US Navy or Air Force can freely come and go as they used to.
In terms of cultural and political influence, Beijing is also growing rapidly. In the post-COVID era, China has embarked on a “frenzy” of diplomacy, with political leaders from various countries visiting China in succession, attempting to make up for the lost opportunities for exchanges with the world’s largest industrial country during the pandemic. Iran and Saudi Arabia, with the help of China, signed a joint declaration in Beijing to re-establish diplomatic relations. “The RMB is moving towards its globalization process, as China has signed currency agreements with some countries to reduce the use of the US dollar in its trade settlements and increase the use of the RMB. This is undoubtedly a challenge and impact on the dominance of the US dollar.” We can argue that China has not departed from the existing world system, but it is attempting to establish a multipolar political, diplomatic, and economic system that is distinct from Europe and the US.
CHANGES IN TAIWAN
Before the 1990s, both the PRC and the ROC were fighting over who could represent the whole of China. But after entering the 1990s, the situation changed: China’s reunification or Taiwan’s independence became the most sensitive and important issues across the Taiwan Strait. After entering the 21st century, the Kuomintang, which supports the one-China principle, has only been in power for eight years, and the rest of the time has been dominated by the DPP, which supports independence. Over the past two decades, Taiwan’s textbooks have been repeatedly revised to de-sinicize and sever the historical ties between the mainland and Taiwan. “Educational and cultural Taiwan independence” has become a trend in Taiwan textbooks. According to polls, the number of Taiwanese who only identify themselves as Taiwanese accounts for 62.3% of Taiwan’s population.
Figure 3. Election Study Center, National Chengchi University. Changes in the Taiwanese/Chinese Identity of Taiwanese. (10/01/2022)
Supporters of Taiwan’s independence account for 31.1% of the population. Obviously, Taiwan is moving towards separation from mainland China.
Figure 4. Election Study Center, National Chengchi University. Changes in the Unification-Independence Stances of Taiwanese. (10/01/2022)
THE FUTURE
According to the 《Anti-Secession Law》 of the People’s Republic of China, Mainland China is willing to peacefully reunify Taiwan, but if Taiwan becomes independent, the state will use non-peaceful means to protect China’s territorial and sovereign integrity. It can be seen that the PRC’s determination to the reunification of the motherland is very firm, even at the expense of using force. But the United States and pro-Taiwan independence forces are like a wall standing in front of Beijing, blocking China’s reunification. The two sides are as incompatible as water and fire, with the possibility of conflict or war breaking out at any time. Today is the second day of the PLA’s second military exercise around Taiwan in nine months. The last military exercise was in August last year to protest the visit of then-US House Speaker Pelosi to Taiwan, and this time it is to express dissatisfaction with Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting with current House Speaker McKinley during her transit in the US. However, it is evident that Beijing has maintained high restraint in both military exercises and has not turned them into actual war. For China, which has just emerged from the pandemic, the focus is clearly not on “reunification,” but on the recovery of economic development and the restoration of normal social life. Moreover, at present, there is still a significant gap between China and the United States, the world’s only superpower, in both economic and military strength. As long as Washington and Taipei do not cross Beijing’s red line, war will not easily break out.
In the full text of the 《Anti-Secession Law》, only the word “China” is mentioned, and there is no mention of the “People’s Republic of China”. This shows that for Beijing, as long as the Taiwan authorities recognize the 92 consensus: the one-China principle, the two sides still have the opportunity to negotiate. Just like in 2015, Xi Jinping and Ma Ying-jeou held talks in Singapore. Ma Ying-jeou’s visit to the mainland a few days ago also received high-level receptions from many senior CCP officials. In less than two years, the ROC (Taiwan) will hold a general election. The DPP government has been in power for 8 years. It is still unknown whether the KMT or the DPP will be in power next time. If the KMT is elected, the two sides will still have the opportunity for peace, but if the DPP is elected, the war may be getting closer. But no matter which party is elected, it will not stop Beijing’s determination to reunify the whole China. If, unfortunately, the war breaks out one day, armed conflict will not be the first stage, economic and trade wars or energy wars will occur first. In 2021, Taiwan’s exports to the mainland accounted for 42.31% of Taiwan’s total exports. In 2020, Taiwan’s imported energy accounted for 97.8% of the total energy. This means that as long as mainland China stops importing Taiwanese goods and blocks Taiwan, restricting Taiwan’s imported energy from entering Taiwan, Taiwan will collapse. Warfare is only a last resort.
Simon WU, research fellow of University of La Rochelle，La Rochelle，France.