For the South Korea, economic aspects have become as fragile as walking on thin ice. Financial markets at home and abroad are shaking in the wake of the DPRK’s military actions.
Both the political and economic sides are about to face a “hurricane” blowing. On the one hand, North Korea is gradually approaching with a military stick. Not only did it test-fire tactical missiles in a short period of time, but Kim Jong-un has also “personally directed” several drills. Judging from past experience, this means that North Korea is likely to accelerate the pace of military actions, including nuclear tests and restarting nuclear reactors. It’s harder for the South Korea to take the initiative to solve the problem through negotiations. On the other hand, South Korea’s economy is on the edge of a cliff. According to a survey made by the Korea Institute of Industrial Technology, 70% of manufacturing companies said the exchange rate has led to higher materials costs and the operational environment of company is more difficult. With the new semiconductor export controls announced by the U.S, as for the Korea, the semiconductor industry in China is facing great challenges. Even if the main companies like Samsung and SK Hynix obtain the “special license”, but there is no turning back about the relationship between the U.S. and China. So, the Korean semiconductor industry can only follow the trend.
South Korea’s semiconductor industry is advantageous in scale and technology. But Korea has a great fatal disadvantage in terms of geographical location. Compared with Japan, Korea is bordered by DPRK on land, and its small territory lacks strategic depth. Once a war breaks out, especially the nuclear war, the whole country will suffer a catastrophe. Therefore, South Korea’s economy is connected to military security. On October 11, President of the South Korea—Yoon Suk yeol showed ambiguity about whether to consult with the U.S on the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea. However, two days later, with the DPRK’s aggressive military actions, there is pervading sense of menace. Yoon Suk yeol changed attitude, saying that tactical nuclear weapons should be considered positively. Although such an idea is bound to be criticized by domestic opposition parties, anti-war factions and medias. South Korea can only look for a stronger military-political umbrella from the U.S. if it wants semiconductor industry continue to play its role instead of being destroyed.
Of course, another option for South Korea is to negotiate with the U.S. to seek a relaxation of the weapons ban and develop more powerful missiles for pre-emptive strikes. This is also becoming more likely, because Australia is building nuclear submarines and Japanese is also admitted to develop the longer-range weapons. But either option would be a risky move. Not only the DPRK, but also China and Russia may enhance alertness which leads the situation got steadily worse.
The nuclear umbrella is really needed now?
After DPRK’s nuclear threats, South Korea’s security concerns are growing fast. The foundation for the South’s North Korea policy has been based on the possibility of DPRK’s denuclearizing. Now, calls are growing to fundamentally review South Korea’s security strategy by putting all available options on the table. Politicians and security experts are presenting diverse ideas such as the South Korea should have its own nuclear armaments, the redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons or cooperating with NATO.
Each argument has reasonable aspects because nukes can only be countered by nukes. However, the issue is not simple. In South Korea, the public is extremely sensitive to nuclear-related decisions. If the government proposes to abolish the Declaration on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula or even withdraw from the NPT(Treaty on the Non－Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons), it is likely to lead to a violent backlash. The result would be a torn society and political confrontation. What’s more, conducting nuclear weapons-related research and redeploying tactical nuclear weapons are not matters that can be pursued by the South Korean government alone. Instead of blindly riding on the tide or joining political offensives or responding emotionally, government officials must think before they speak or act. The U.S, China, Russia, and Japan must be psychologically prepared for the enormous consequences that could result.
What really matters for the conservative government is getting an assurance of U.S. extended deterrence, including its nuclear umbrella. The argument for South Korea building its own nuclear armaments is rooted in the suspicion that the U.S. might not unfurl its nuclear umbrella to protect its ally at a critical moment. These doubts are the logical starting point for the South Korean government when it advocates independent nuclear armament. Although the a meeting between the South Korea-U.S. vice-ministerial diplomatic and defense agreement was held, it is impossible to curb nuclear expansion in a short time. Or rather that is just the beginning and countless plans and security plans need to be prepared.
As DPRK continues aggressive action related the nuclear weapons, elevating the extended deterrence to the highest level is unavoidable, including the deployment of U.S. nuclear assets to the peninsula. The South Korea must find effective ways to eliminate the tension around Korean Peninsula.
The alarming security situation in the peninsula does not lend itself to mistakes. If the South Korea makes a fumble, the country could live under the DPRK nuclear threat permanently. While being prepared to maintain a responsive posture, security strategies need to be calmly and thoughtfully re-examined.
Major Teng is a research fellow at Asia Pacific Regional Development Institute of Hong Kong and he focuses on East Asian studies and China-Japan comparative politics research.