After the meeting in Alaska, the United States is still putting pressure on China in all aspects, further involved in Asia-Pacific region, reshaping the USA-Japan-South Korea alliance and creating new threats to China. At the same time the political landscape of South Korea has changed abruptly. The country’s local election in Seoul and Busan indicated the ruling party’s nationwide defeat since 2016. A great problem afterwards is if this could only influence the interior of upcoming 2022 national election or stir the regional situation of the East Asian.
On April 7th, the results of South Korea’s local by-election showed the ruling party suffered a crush defeat. According to Yonhap News Agency (YNA), in the local senator election, the ruling party only took 6 seats while the other 15 seats were taken by the opposition party. The more iconic achievement of the opposition party was they took both Seoul and Busan’s mayor election back, and especially in Busan, it was the first time in the past four years. The defeat in the election means the domestic and diplomatic policies haven’t brought enough supporters for Moon’s government. In 2022 of the President–Election year, Moon Jae-in government has no choice but to change their own policies to meet the challenge. At home, in addition to selecting potential young successors to change the dilemma, Moon administration will have to work with the opposition party on all aspects of the economy to ensure the stability of governance until the presidential election. In diplomatic terms, in the past years it is obvious that South Korea kept an embarrassed relationship with the traditional alliance including the USA and Japan. After the election, Moon’s government probably need adjust the foreign policy trajectory to be closer to the US, taking a more positive attitude towards the triangle alliance including the possibility of warming the current frozen relations with Japan. The relationship with the DPRK is another important card which could be treated as a catalyst to boost public sentiment for the Moon’s government. In summary, South Korea might change the long-term course in the East Asian landscape to pull itself out of the swamp caused by the election defeat.
1.The recovery of the USA-Japan-ROK alliance
For historical and practical reasons, the US-ROK alliance is the diplomatic cornerstone to South Korea. But in the past 2020, due to the impact of the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic and the foreign policy of the American former President Trump, the relationship between the United States and South Korea was virtually stagnant. However, in January 2021, when the Biden’s administration took the power, the U.S. began to accelerate its return to East Asia-Pacific region and reshape the U.S.-Japan-ROK Alliance. In addition to frequently offering an olive branch and emphasizing the importance of the solid U.S.-ROK Alliance, Biden has also begun to solve the problems occurred in Trump government practically, such as the cost sharing of U.S. forces in ROK and the restoration of the USA -ROK joint military exercises. Moreover, in March, the United States Secretary of Defense visited ROK and held a “2 + 2” talk (Foreign and Defense Ministerial Dialogue from both countries).
Although, according to the joint communique published after the talk, ROK emphasized “willing to develop the relation between China and ROK on the basis of the USA-ROK Alliance” while trying to avoid taking sides, it was a signal that the relationship between the USA and ROK started to recover. Besides, after the defeat in local election this time, for Moon’s administration and the ruling party, it is particularly important to gain the American support to make up for the loss in the internal affairs. It is predictable that although it is only one year away from ROK’s Presidential Election, the foreign policy of ROK will be more focused on patching and consolidating the relation with the US, and the interaction between the two countries will be more frequent.
The relationship between Japan and ROK, which should serve as another supporting point in the USA-Japan-ROK Alliance, has been fragile due to the problems of forced labor in World War II and recent export sanctions on semiconductor materials. It is not an ideal status for the US. Biden aims to contain China through stabilizing the USA-Japan-ROK Alliance as its major diplomatic pivot to Asia. Then we can see some signs of improvement in the relation between Japan and ROK afterwards. First, on April 12th, Moon Jae-in has accepted the formal appointment of Japan’s new ambassador to ROK, which had been “cold-treated” since the ambassador’s arriving in ROK in February. Second, the export sanctions on semiconductor materials between the two countries was expected to be lifted with the interventions of the US, especially after South Korea declared great investment in US for semiconductor industry. If that’s the case, it will definitely help the US to consolidate the anti-China network in East Asia.
2.The relation with North to be improved and uncertainty with China?
For ROK, North-South relation is not just an important card in diplomacy, but also a magic key for the government of ROK to gain the national trust. In the local elections in April 2020, one of the important reasons Moon Jae-in and the ruling party were able to maintain their advantage was the improvement of the relation with the North. However, in the past few months, the relationship between the two sides went downhill, and the top-level communications have been suspended. But after North Korea declared that they would be again absent from the Tokyo Olympic Games, Moon administration doesn’t want to miss any opportunity to repair the relation with the North. Before Moon Jae-in goes to visit the US, South Korea really wants to show stronger influence over the North as Biden needs to figure out the relation with Kim Jong-un finally. We believe that South Korea would worry less about China as it shut down almost all of Samsung’s factories in China although China has irreplaceable influence over North Korea. Additionally, with the acceleration of the US’s Pivot-to-Asia strategy, South Korea might not have enough time and room to maneuver.
3.The possibility of the regime change and foreign policy shift of ROK
Even though it is predictable that the Moon Jae-in government will actively adjust its domestic and foreign policy after this local election to avoid another big loss in general election, South Korea may not be able to avoid the transfer of power in the next year. Since the parliamentary election in 2016, the ruling party won four times. However, the public support for Moon Jae-in and the ruling party has been steadily declining since then. Especially in the past year, the initial praise for Moon Jae-in on the fight against the COVID-19 has been replaced by the discontent over the economic crisis, particularly the soaring house prices and rising unemployment rates.
The opposition party has not yet made a complete policy proposal and the direction of foreign policy. But the last two presidents from the opposition camp – People Power Party, Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye had obvious “pro-American” stance. The opposition party have had young voters in their 20s to 30s who are not only focused on domestic but also foreign policy. The severe housing and unemployment problems which triggered the massive angry vote this time should be caused by the Pandemic. But the momentum may lead to a change of ruling party in next year’s presidential election. In recent two years, the progressive development of the relations between America, Japan and Taiwan has posed a substantial threat to South Korea’s semiconductor industry. If new political forces seek to overcome issues such as economic development by strengthening alliance with US, they are bound to change their attitude towards China.
We can further observe Moon Jae-in’s upcoming visit to the US. If Moon administration delivers strong signal that they want to improve the economic relation with Japan through increasing investment in the US, it suggests that they felt great pressure from the opposition. Such a policy change either from Moon administration or the opposition government would probably result in great influence in relations with China, which in turn could lead to oscillation in the East Asian landscape. Major East Asian countries need more collaborations to eliminate the unprecedented negative impact of the Pandemic. However, as Biden administration has engaged more actively in East Asian affairs, China-US competition is not expected to cool down for the time being. Under such circumstances, the change of South Korea’s foreign policy will bring great influence to the development of the situation in East Asia.
Major Teng is a research fellow at Asia Pacific Regional Development Institute of Hong Kong and he focuses on East Asian studies and China-Japan comparative politics research.